Summary

At the core of RoSE is a multi-model ensemble experiment involving the participation of four global integrated assessment models (GCAM, IPAC, REMIND, WITCH) and one regional energy system model (China MARKAL). This is complemented by the analysis of domain experts on the fields of energy security, transportation, fossil fuel availability, and access to electricity.

The RoSE project has several unique features that distinguish it from past integrated assessment model comparison projects and frame the project objectives:

• Participation of integrated assessment modeling teams from three key regions for climate policy making (EU, USA, China).
• Exploration of a large scenario space defined by key input assumptions (fossil fuel availability, economic and population growth) and climate policy stabilisation targets.
• Harmonisation of key input assumptions in order to provide a better understanding of the effect of input versus structural model assumptions on transformation scenarios, their feasibility and the associated costs.
• Analysis of the representation of the future development of the Chinese energy futures by both global and regional modeling.
• Participation of domain experts in key areas of energy systems with the aim to embed scenarios and model results in a larger context beyond model boundaries.

The overall focus of RoSE is to identify robust and sensitive features of energy transformation pathways taking into account the effect and interplay of the following key factors:

• underlying assumptions on future socio-economic development regarding economic and population growth;
• reference assumptions on long-term fossil fuel availability, with a focus on variations of coal, oil and gas;
• stringency of climate protection targets and framework of international climate policy;
• implications of structural differences across models;
• insights from the analysis of experts on energy systems domains that are often underrepresented in integrated assessment models.